Monday, December 11, 2017

Putting Things in Perspective

Just three charts putting things in perspective...

Chart #1:  three periods and four variables (total US energy consumption, 25-54yr/old US employees, federal debt, and federal funds rate %:
  • 1950 to 1975
    • +43 quadrillion BTU's of energy consumption
    • +15 million 25-54yr/old employees
    • +$0.3 trillion federal debt
  • 1975 to 2000
    • +19 quadrillion BTU's of energy consumption
    • +45 million 25-54yr/old employees
    • +$5.1 trillion federal debt
  • 2000 to 2017
    • <-3> quadrillion BTU's of energy consumption
    • +1.5 million 25-54yr/old employees
    • +$14.9 trillion federal debt
Chart #2:  Annual 15-64 year old population change versus the market weighted value of all stocks actively traded in the US.
Chart #3:  Breaking down the growth of the working age population, per ten year periods, versus the growth of the Wilshire 5000.For the minority that are asset holders, this should be great news as the now declining working age population is the cause for outright centrally driven hyper-monetization domestically and globally.  Market valuations previously undreamed of will be achieved in the "new depopulationary normal".  For the majority that are working for a living with little or no assets, a stagflationary nightmare.


Bonus Chart:  15-64yr/old total population versus annual change.  Again, the Census estimated growth among the 15-64yr/old population in excess of 600 thousand in 2017 (almost entirely thanks to immigration)...but reality appears to be a decline in excess of 200 thousand (detailed HERE).  And moving forward, the chances of core depopulation through 2025 look increasingly more likely.  Regardless the Fed speak and happy tax talk, a spectacular amount of additional debt and monetization will be necessary over the next decade if America is to show "growth" in a nation built on debt fueled consumption and trade deficits.